Canola Market Outlook: May 2, 2022

Weekly canola market outlook provided by Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

Key Points for the Week:

• Soybeans – CBOT soybeans closed the week slightly lower but remain well above trend support.

• Support for old crop was pulled by huge crush margins. Support for new crop soybeans came from slow plantings, an ongoing cold and wet forecast, and the lack of Brazilian export offers for Sep ’22 - Jan ’23.

• Canola – Total canola disappearance during the first thirty-eight weeks of the crop year amounted to 11.1 million MT compared to 16.5 million MT last YTD.

• Statistics Canada estimated the 2022 Canadian canola acreage to be down 7 percent at 20.897 million acres. We don’t agree with this estimate; given prevailing prices, we think it is too low.

• We would be sold out of old crop canola and have some new crop sales on the books. Oil is representing a big 83 percent of the Nov, crush value, which we think this is too high.