Canola Market Outlook: June 6, 2022

Weekly canola market outlook provided by Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

Key Points for the Week:

• Soybeans – CBOT soybeans turned lower on Friday pulled along by profit-taking and fresh losses in corn and wheat.

• Crush margins have fallen but remain quite profitable.

• While US plantings are close to average, there is still concern about North Dakota soybeans, where just 23% of soybeans are seeded compared to 86% last year.

• We think the corn/soybean ratio should be at least 2.30.

• Canola – Total canola disappearance during the first 43 weeks of the crop year amounted to 12.3 million MT compared to 18.3 million MT last YTD.

• The 2021/22 crop is down to the fine tuning, but we should have sufficient canola to take us to the end of the year while using less oil for export.

• Seeding is still in arrears, and we will have to review the seeded canola acreage given the problems in Manitoba, Alberta and North Dakota.

• We see no reason to change the canola position at this point.