Canola Market Outlook: April 11, 2022
Weekly canola market outlook provided by Marlene Boersch of Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.
Key Points for the Week:
Soybeans – USDA lowered Chinese crush by 3 million MT, given the season to date 10% decline on last year.
US weekly export sales of soybeans were reported at 801k MT on old crop and 299k MT new crop soybeans, both about mid-range of trade guesses. The season total of 2,062 million bu remains 7.5% below last year’s sales, in line with the USDA's projection.
Canola – Total canola disappearance during the first thirty-five weeks of the crop year amounted to 10.3 million MT compared to 15.4 million MT last YTD.
EU rapeseed oil remains firm at US$2,280.00/MT, which is a record price. However, we note that in the Chinese market, rapeseed oil is now no longer trading at a premium to soybean oil, and assume that China will cease buying canola seed/ canola products at their current premium to soybeans/soybean products.
However, we think that US oilseed ending stocks have further to fall and that soybeans remain bullish.
We see no reason to sell additional canola at this time.